BAER Stock Analysis

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
INDUSTRIALS SECURITY & PROTECTION SERVICES

Back to Winners View Yahoo Finance Chart Buy on the Dip

Strong Caution Mixed Weak Unavailable

StockValueFinder Grade

38.52 / 100

Weak

Confidence: High (83.0%) Coverage: 83.0%

Business Quality 19.8

Financial Strength 47.5

Earnings & Growth 50.6

Valuation 53.6

Market Strength 21.7

The grade combines Business Quality, Financial Strength, Earnings & Growth, Valuation, and Market Strength. Rating and Trend remain separate signals.

Rating AVOID

Avoid

The screening rules are warning against this setup.

Rating is the simple decision label from the screening rules.

Trend SELL / AVOID TREND

Weak Trend

The current trend is unfavorable.

Trend shows whether price action is helping or hurting the setup.

P/E Ratio -0.88

Not Meaningful

Negative or missing earnings make P/E hard to use.

P/E shows how much investors pay for each dollar of earnings.

ROIC 1.34%

Weak

Low ROIC suggests limited profit efficiency.

ROIC measures how efficiently capital turns into profit.

Debt Payback -3.31 yrs

Unavailable

Debt payback is unavailable or not meaningful.

Debt payback estimates how quickly debt could be covered.

Interest Coverage 0.66x

Weak

Low coverage can make debt more risky.

Interest coverage shows how easily earnings cover interest costs.

Price $0.49

Market Price

Price alone is not a buy or sell signal.

Price should be judged with valuation, quality, and trend.

Last updated: 2026-10-24 01:42:24

Performance Overview

Trailing adjusted-close returns as of 2026-06-26. Benchmark is SPY.

YTD Return

BAER -5.46%

SPY +7.47%

1-Year Return

BAER +4.22%

SPY +20.46%

3-Year Return

BAER -67.72%

SPY +75.39%

5-Year Return

BAER -82.07%

SPY +82.87%

Returns are calculated from adjusted close prices and may differ from broker or research-site totals depending on data source, dividend handling, benchmark choice, and latest available trading date.

Legacy Screening Checks

This page uses cached SQL data from the latest StockValueFinder scan, so it loads fast without hitting Alpha Vantage on every page view.

33%

EPS Strength

FAIL

Looks for positive and improving earnings per share.

ROIC 10%+

FAIL

Looks for strong return on invested capital.

Interest Coverage 6+

FAIL

Checks whether operating income comfortably covers interest expense.

Debt Payback ≤ 3 Years

PASS

Checks whether free cash flow could pay down long-term debt quickly.

P/E 15 or Less

PASS

Checks whether valuation is reasonable under the current rule set.

Moving Average Trend

SELL / AVOID TREND

Uses 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages for entry timing context.

A high StockValueFinder score is a research signal, not a guarantee. Strong companies can still fall during recessions, sector downturns, valuation resets, or company-specific events. Always review the business, risks, SEC filings, valuation, and your personal investment goals before buying.

Cached Technical Data

Moving average values from the latest stored scan.

20-Day MA0.59

50-Day MA0.87

200-Day MA1.81

MA Score0

Latest Published Stock Research

Research generated: October 23, 2026

BAER Stock Analysis: Why Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock Scored 33% in Stock Value Finder

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER): A Detailed Educational Review

Overview of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER)

This is an educational review of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (ticker: BAER) from StockValueFinder.com. The goal is to help investors understand how to evaluate stocks using clear, number-driven metrics. This article does not provide personal financial advice or recommend buying or selling BAER. Instead, it explains the available data, what strong and weak ranges look like for each metric, and why the stock received its current StockValueFinder score.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. operates in the Industrials sector, specifically within the Security & Protection Services industry. The company’s recent stock price is $0.49. StockValueFinder’s system assigned BAER a score of 33% and a rating of **AVOID**, based on the supplied financial and trend metrics. Below, we break down each key metric to explain what the numbers mean and how they contribute to the overall assessment.

Why the StockValueFinder Score Matters

StockValueFinder uses a rules-based scoring system to evaluate stocks across multiple financial and trend-based metrics. The score ranges from 0% to 100%, with higher scores indicating stronger financial health, better valuation discipline, and more favorable trend conditions. A score of 33% for BAER suggests that the stock currently exhibits several weak or risky characteristics based on the available data.

The **AVOID** rating means the system has identified multiple red flags in the company’s financials or trend behavior. This does not mean the stock will necessarily decline—no system can predict future price movements—but it does signal that BAER does not meet StockValueFinder’s criteria for financial strength, valuation discipline, or trend stability at this time.

EPS Strength and Consistency

What EPS Measures

Earnings per share (EPS) measures a company’s profitability on a per-share basis. Consistent or growing EPS over time is generally a sign of a stable or improving business. StockValueFinder evaluates EPS strength to assess whether a company has demonstrated reliable earnings performance.

Strong vs. Weak EPS

**Strong EPS:** Companies with consistent or rising EPS over multiple quarters or years typically show better operational control and profitability. For example, a company with EPS of $1.20, $1.30, and $1.40 over three consecutive years demonstrates steady growth. - **Weak EPS:** Companies with volatile, declining, or negative EPS may face operational challenges, competitive pressures, or inconsistent demand. For instance, EPS of $0.50, -$0.20, and $0.10 over three years would raise concerns about earnings stability.

BAER’s EPS Test Result

The supplied data indicates that BAER **did not pass** the EPS test. While exact EPS values are not provided, the system recorded a failing result, suggesting that the company’s earnings history did not meet StockValueFinder’s criteria for consistency or growth. Investors should note that without a clear track record of stable or improving earnings, it becomes harder to assess the company’s underlying business strength.

ROIC and Capital Efficiency

What ROIC Measures

Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how effectively a company uses its capital to generate profits. It answers the question: *For every dollar invested in the business, how much profit does the company generate?* ROIC is a critical metric for evaluating management’s ability to allocate capital efficiently.

Strong vs. Weak ROIC

**Strong ROIC:** A ROIC of **10% or higher** is generally considered attractive. For example, a company with a ROIC of 15% is generating $0.15 in profit for every $1 of invested capital, which suggests strong capital efficiency. - **Weak ROIC:** A ROIC below 5% may indicate that the company is struggling to generate sufficient returns on its investments. For instance, a ROIC of 2% means the company earns only $0.02 per $1 of invested capital, which is often below the cost of capital and raises questions about long-term viability.

BAER’s ROIC

BAER’s ROIC is **1.34%**. This is well below StockValueFinder’s preferred threshold of 10%. A ROIC of 1.34% suggests that the company is generating minimal returns on its invested capital, which may reflect operational inefficiencies, weak pricing power, or high capital requirements relative to earnings. Investors should be cautious when evaluating companies with low ROIC, as it often signals that the business is not using its capital effectively.

Interest Coverage and Financial Safety

What Interest Coverage Measures

Interest coverage measures a company’s ability to pay the interest on its debt. It is calculated as **earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) divided by interest expense**. A higher interest coverage ratio indicates greater financial safety, as the company can more easily meet its debt obligations.

Strong vs. Weak Interest Coverage

**Strong Interest Coverage:** A ratio of **6 or higher** is generally considered healthy. For example, an interest coverage ratio of 8 means the company earns 8 times its annual interest expense, providing a comfortable buffer. - **Weak Interest Coverage:** A ratio below 2 is often seen as risky, as it suggests the company may struggle to service its debt. For instance, a ratio of 1.5 means the company earns only 1.5 times its annual interest expense, leaving little room for error if earnings decline.

BAER’s Interest Coverage Test Result

The supplied data indicates that BAER **did not pass** the interest coverage test. While the exact interest coverage ratio is not provided, the failing result suggests that the company’s earnings may not be sufficient to comfortably cover its interest payments. This raises concerns about financial safety, particularly if the company faces unexpected challenges or rising interest rates.

Debt Payback and Balance Sheet Discipline

What Debt Payback Measures

Debt payback measures how long it would take a company to pay off its total debt using its current operating cash flow. It is calculated as **total debt divided by annual operating cash flow**. A shorter debt payback period indicates a stronger balance sheet and lower financial risk.

Strong vs. Weak Debt Payback

**Strong Debt Payback:** A debt payback period of **3 years or less** is generally considered attractive. For example, a company with $30 million in debt and $10 million in annual operating cash flow has a debt payback period of 3 years, which is manageable. - **Weak Debt Payback:** A debt payback period exceeding 5 years may indicate high leverage and financial strain. For instance, a company with $50 million in debt and $5 million in annual operating cash flow has a 10-year debt payback period, which is risky.

BAER’s Debt Payback

BAER’s debt payback period is **-3.31 years**. A negative debt payback period is unusual and typically occurs when a company’s operating cash flow is negative. This means the company is not generating enough cash from operations to cover its debt obligations, let alone pay down debt. While BAER **passed** the debt payback test in StockValueFinder’s system, the negative value is a significant red flag. Investors should interpret this cautiously, as it suggests the company may be relying on external financing or asset sales to meet its obligations.

P/E Ratio and Valuation Discipline

What P/E Ratio Measures

The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio measures how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of a company’s earnings. It is calculated as **stock price divided by earnings per share (EPS)**. A lower P/E ratio may indicate a more attractively valued stock, assuming the business quality is sound.

Strong vs. Weak P/E Ratio

**Strong P/E Ratio:** A P/E ratio of **15 or lower** is often considered value-oriented, assuming the company has stable earnings and growth prospects. For example, a P/E of 8 suggests investors are paying $8 for every $1 of earnings, which may be attractive if the business is healthy. - **Weak P/E Ratio:** A P/E ratio above 30 may indicate overvaluation, particularly if earnings growth is uncertain. For instance, a P/E of 40 means investors are paying $40 for every $1 of earnings, which may not be sustainable unless the company delivers exceptional growth.

BAER’s P/E Ratio

BAER’s P/E ratio is **-0.88**. A negative P/E ratio occurs when a company reports negative earnings (i.e., a net loss). While BAER **passed** the P/E valuation test in StockValueFinder’s system, this is not necessarily a positive signal. A negative P/E ratio means the company is not profitable on a per-share basis, and investors should be cautious about relying on valuation metrics when earnings are negative. The passing result may reflect the system’s rules for handling negative P/E ratios, but it does not imply that the stock is undervalued.

Moving Average Trend and Entry Timing

What Moving Averages Measure

Moving averages smooth out price data to identify trends over time. StockValueFinder uses moving averages to assess whether a stock is in an uptrend, downtrend, or sideways trend. Trend analysis is used for timing discipline, not as a guarantee of future performance.

Strong vs. Weak Moving Average Signals

**Strong Trend:** A stock trading **above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages** is often considered to be in an uptrend. For example, if a stock’s price is $25, its 50-day moving average is $23, and its 200-day moving average is $20, this suggests positive momentum. - **Weak Trend:** A stock trading **below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages** is often considered to be in a downtrend. For instance, if a stock’s price is $10, its 50-day moving average is $12, and its 200-day moving average is $15, this suggests negative momentum.

BAER’s Moving Average Signal

BAER’s moving average signal is **SELL / AVOID TREND**. This indicates that the stock is currently trading below key moving averages, suggesting a downtrend. While trends can reverse, the current signal suggests that BAER is not in a favorable technical position. StockValueFinder’s system also indicates that the **entry signal is N/A**, meaning there is no clear technical setup for a potential entry at this time.

Overall Financial Strengths and Weaknesses

Strengths

1. **Debt Payback Test Passed:** Despite the negative debt payback period, BAER passed this test in StockValueFinder’s system. However, as noted earlier, the negative value is a significant concern and should not be interpreted as a strength. 2. **P/E Valuation Test Passed:** BAER also passed the P/E valuation test, but this is largely due to the negative P/E ratio, which is not a positive signal.

Weaknesses

1. **EPS Test Failed:** BAER did not demonstrate consistent or growing earnings, which is a critical weakness for assessing business stability. 2. **ROIC of 1.34%:** The company’s return on invested capital is well below the preferred threshold of 10%, indicating poor capital efficiency. 3. **Interest Coverage Test Failed:** The company’s earnings do not appear sufficient to comfortably cover its interest payments, raising financial safety concerns. 4. **Negative Debt Payback Period:** The negative value suggests the company is not generating enough operating cash flow to service its debt. 5. **Negative P/E Ratio:** The company is not profitable on a per-share basis, which limits the usefulness of traditional valuation metrics. 6. **SELL / AVOID TREND:** The stock is in a downtrend based on moving averages, which adds to the overall cautionary picture.

Risks and Limitations

Financial Risks

1. **Negative Earnings:** BAER’s negative P/E ratio and failing EPS test indicate that the company is not currently profitable. This raises questions about its ability to sustain operations without external financing. 2. **Low ROIC:** A ROIC of 1.34% suggests that the company is not generating sufficient returns on its invested capital, which may limit long-term growth prospects. 3. **Debt Concerns:** The negative debt payback period and failing interest coverage test highlight potential balance sheet risks. If the company cannot improve its cash flow, it may face difficulties servicing its debt. 4. **Downtrend:** The SELL / AVOID TREND signal suggests that the stock is under selling pressure, which could lead to further declines if the trend continues.

Limitations of This Analysis

1. **Incomplete Data:** Some metrics, such as exact EPS values and interest coverage ratio, are not provided. This limits the depth of the analysis and requires investors to seek additional information. 2. **No Forward-Looking Data:** This review is based on historical and current data. It does not account for potential future improvements in the company’s financials or market conditions. 3. **No Industry Context:** While BAER operates in the Security & Protection Services industry, this review does not compare its metrics to industry peers. Investors should consider how BAER stacks up against competitors. 4. **No Qualitative Factors:** This analysis focuses on quantitative metrics. Qualitative factors, such as management quality, competitive advantages, or industry trends, are not included but are important for a comprehensive evaluation.

Educational Conclusion

This review of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER) is designed to help investors understand how to evaluate stocks using clear, number-driven metrics. BAER received a StockValueFinder score of 33% and a rating of **AVOID**, reflecting several weak or risky characteristics in its financials and trend behavior.

Key Takeaways for Investors

1. **EPS Consistency Matters:** BAER failed the EPS test, highlighting the importance of stable or growing earnings. Investors should prioritize companies with a track record of consistent profitability. 2. **ROIC Reflects Capital Efficiency:** BAER’s ROIC of 1.34% is well below the preferred threshold of 10%. This metric helps investors assess how effectively a company uses its capital to generate profits. 3. **Interest Coverage Indicates Financial Safety:** BAER failed the interest coverage test, suggesting potential difficulties in servicing debt. A healthy interest coverage ratio (6 or higher) provides a buffer against financial strain. 4. **Debt Payback Period Highlights Balance Sheet Health:** While BAER passed the debt payback test, the negative value of -3.31 years is a red flag. Investors should be cautious when evaluating companies with negative or excessively long debt payback periods. 5. **P/E Ratio and Valuation Discipline:** BAER’s negative P/E ratio means the company is not profitable. While it passed the P/E valuation test, this is not a positive signal and should be interpreted cautiously. 6. **Trend Analysis for Timing Discipline:** BAER’s SELL / AVOID TREND signal suggests the stock is in a downtrend. Moving averages can help investors identify favorable or unfavorable entry points, but they do not guarantee future performance.

Final Thoughts

BAER’s current metrics do not meet StockValueFinder’s criteria for financial strength, valuation discipline, or trend stability. While no system can predict future performance, the available data suggests that investors should approach this stock with caution. This review is intended to educate readers on how to evaluate stocks using objective metrics, not to provide personal financial advice.

This article is for research and educational purposes only. It is not personal financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Research links: Yahoo Finance | Seeking Alpha | Finviz | SEC Filings

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